Mid term report

/

Midterm fever is spreading across the country like wild fever!  With so much going on, where can you find a print-out-then-cut-out-and-keep guide to the giant electoral bun fight on November 6th?  Look no further!

All 435 congressional seats are up for election.  The Republicans have a majority of 47, so the Democrats need to flip 24 seats to take the House.  The party of the sitting President has traditionally lost seats in midterms, so with Trump’s popularity down amongst everyone other than his base, it would be a surprise if the Democrats were not able to take the seats they need.  And, more to the point, it would be a complete punch in the guts. 

Taking the House is absolutely crucial to put some checks and balances on his reckless and impulsive behaviour.  A Republican memo was leaked earlier this year that set out a long list of enquiries into Trump’s widespread corruption they fear would be instigated by a Democrat run House.  These would include investigating:

  • Trump’s tax returns after forcing him to release them (all previous Presidents have done it, yet Trump refuses despite/because of the numerous allegations of family fraud and using the Presidency for personal financial gain);

  • Discussion of classified information at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort and his insistance on using his unsecure personal mobile phone for Presidential business – remembering he still encourages chants of “lock her up” over Hilary Clinton’s use of a personal lap top to view official emails;

  • The hurricane response in Puerto Rico;

  • Separating families at the border;

  • Widespread corruption at the Environmental Protection Agency under the climate change denying leadership Trump installed;

  • And oh yes, and that whole election security/hacking business.

Thanks for the memo, Republicans, that serves as a very handy starting place for Democrats should they win the House.

Gaining control of the House is a crucial first step in slowing, moderating and possibly halting the President in his tracks.  Failing to do this would be a horrendously mangy result.  Really mangy.  “Street dog chewing on its own stitches” mangy.  It’s why any debate on Democrat 2020 Presidential candidates has been frowned upon lest it distract from the crucial opportunity in 2018.  Democrats aren’t wrong when they say these midterm elections are the most important in living memory. 

The Senate is more tricky.  A third of Senate seats are up for re-election in November, and annoyingly, the majority of these are currently held by Democrats.  Whilst the Republican majority in the Senate is only 51-49, the Democrats have a tightrope to walk to gain overall control. 

Firstly, they’d have to successfully defend all the Senate seats they currently have.  Ten of these are in states that Trump won in 2016.  Whilst the Democrats should be quietly confident of holding some of these (Trump won Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan by small margins), the others present a significant challenge.  States like West Virginia and North Dakota were comfortable wins for Trump, and are considered more naturally “red states”.  Along with Indiana, Missouri and Montana, winning these five is a tough task for the Democrats to pull off.

On top of that, Democrats also have to flip a couple Republican Senate seats to gain control.  Three states present the best opportunity to do this.

In Arizona, Republican Jeff Flake is standing down after managing to upset literally everyone.  A regular critic of Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric, he incurred the wrath of the President and his loyal band of followers by calling out unpresidential behaviour at regular intervals, before summarising his distaste for Trump in a book last year.  With the Republicans’ Senate majority so narrow, could Flake be the man to help block Trump’s agenda?  No.  The Brett Kavanagh hearing was a perfect example.  As a crucial swing vote, he delayed Kavanagh’s confirmation so the FBI could fully investigate credible claims of historic sexual assaults.  When the cursory investigation failed to satisfy the need for transparency and scrutiny, there were hopes Flake would vote not to confirm.  But as ever, Democrat hopes were dashed when having talked a good game, Flake voted as the President wanted.  So Flake is gone, replaced on the ballot by super-Trumpy Martha McSally, with Democrat hopes resting on Kyrsten Sinema.

Tennessee is another open seat with Republican Marsha Blackburn up against Democrat Phil Bredesen.  Blackburn is a real “character”, having focused much of her political career facing off against science.  Climate change?  “The jury is still out if it’s man made”.  Evolution?  No such thing.  And of course, she opposes any progressive cause going.  She voted against a bill that tried to prohibit job discrimination based on sexual orientation.  She initially supported the Violence Against Women Act, but then opposed it when it was expanded to include all women regardless of sexual orientation.  I spot a theme emerging…  Phil Bredesen is popular in Tennessee having previously been Governor, but is still up against it to win in this traditional Republican state.

Nevada should be the Democrats best shot of flipping a Senate seat.  So what news of Republican incumbent Dean Heller?  Well, he’s in a tough spot.  Nevada is not a hugely conservative state (Las Vegas is home to many things, staunch conservatism isn’t one of them), and Hilary Clinton won the state comfortably in 2016.  Heller found himself torn between being the moderate Republican he instinctively is, and his urge to please Donald Trump.  Tough path to tread.  It resulted in him speaking up for Obamacare to please his constituents, then voting against it to please Trump.  This dance was partly designed to stop a far-right Trump Republican challenging him to be the party’s candidate, which he was successful in doing.  However, it did make him look like a conviction-less opportunist at best, and a cowardly liar at worst.  And a bit of turkey all round. So fingers crossed for Democrat Jacky Rosen.

Special mention should also go to the Senate race in staunchly Republican Texas.  Ted Cruz has found himself in a genuine race against one of the Democrats’ rising stars, Beto O’Rourke.  O’Rourke has got plenty of plaudits for being able to talk about controversial and often divisive issues, such as NFL players kneeling during the national anthem, in a fair, open and respectful way (watch this – he’s great).  Cruz meanwhile, has continued to voice low level opposition to some of Trump’s words and actions, then folded immediately under the slightest hint of push back.  No better example of Cruz’s absence of backbone than last week, when he openly embraced Trump coming to speak with him at a campaign rally, having seemingly forgiven the President for attacking his wife’s appearance a couple of years ago.  Ultimately, it’s still Texas, so a Democrat win is not the most likely outcome.  However, the fact that it’s been made into a competitive race at all will mean plenty of people are watching how things shake out.

In addition to Congress and Senate elections, there are a number of state-wide elections for Governor and State Houses.  Whilst not as powerful as winning control of the House or the Senate, they would allow Democrats to be able to restrict some of Trump’s work at the local level, and put further wind in the party’s sails ahead of 2020.

So what have the parties been talking about on the campaign trail?  Democrats have been focusing on two main issues, healthcare and taxes.  Obamacare remains popular for much of the country, particularly Obamacare’s efforts to protect people with pre-existing conditions and safeguard their ability to get healthcare insurance.  Trump’s repeated efforts to scrap this could harm Republicans in swing seats.

Taxation remains the one policy area where Trump can point to having actually done something.  The problem is that is his tax bill is hugely unpopular – it added $1.5 trillion to America’s budget deficit and directed the vast majority of the tax cuts to billionaires and corporations.  Republicans claimed this assessment wasn’t accurate.  Then when it was clear it was accurate, they claimed lower corporation tax would increase jobs and wages.  Again, this isn’t true – many companies have used the extra income to boost profits not wages.  So both healthcare and taxation are fertile ground for Democrat candidates.

Republicans, meanwhile, have gone for the controversial campaign strategy of lie and distract.  On healthcare, many Republican candidates have seen the way the wind’s blowing and started to claim that they support protecting people with pre-existing conditions.  This is despite the very clear factual evidence that many of them voted the opposite way.   A perfect example is Republican Josh Hawley, running for the Senate in Missouri.  He’s suddenly full of support for people with pre-existing conditions, which includes people in his own family.  Yet he is simultaneously supporting a legal case to that would overturn Obamacare in its entirety.  He is currently trying to legally end the very thing he’s claiming to support!  Hypocrisy overload!  In his defensive (and it’s not really a defence), many other Republicans are trying to airbrush history on their healthcare voting record, including our previously mentioned bud from Arizona, Martha McSally.

The other big offensive the Republicans have been on, nicely tying together both lying and distraction, is the ARMY OF IMMIGRANTS HEADING TO THE US BORDER TO STEAL YOUR JOB, YOUR VOTE AND YOUR LIFE!  Yes, 7,000 people are at the Mexican border.  But there are several facts the Republicans tend to omit.  To start with, they’re at the border of Mexico and Guatemala, not Mexico and the US.  They still have 1,100 miles to walk, so the few that make this journey successfully won’t be arriving for months – this is simply not an immediate emergency, or even an emergency at all.  When they arrive at the US border, they will apply for asylum as they are fleeing violence in their home country.  Many will be refused asylum due to Trump’s inhumane stance of refugees, and be left in limbo.  Some may try to enter the US illegally, but it’s worth remembering that illegal border crossings have been declining for years.  These facts are regularly ignored by Republicans (led by openly racist Trump*), keen to use illegal immigration to sow fear and division for electoral gain.

Trump has ludicrously claimed that Democrats have created and supported this group of migrants.  Equally ludicrously, he also claimed that “unknown Middle Easterners” are part of the group.  Because if you were an Islamic fundamentalist determined to get into America, you’d definitely fly to Guatemala and walk 1,100 miles rather than fly to Canada and get a taxi across the border…  Trump has simultaneously stood by his claim whilst admitting he has no proof – tough day in the Trump spin room.

It’s also worth noting that Trump is trying to reduce foreign aid to Central America, so as well as refusing to let refugees in, he’s also making their life worse at home.

There has been much frustration at how Trump’s lies on immigration have been covered.  This article sums it up perfectly – Trump says something outrageous, untrue and racially divisive, and the media broadcasts his views for the next 24 hours.  Even if they’re showing it alongside a fact-check, it still focuses attention on a made-up story designed to distract from their unpopular position to take healthcare away from the poorest people in America to fund tax cuts for billionaires.

There is something very worrying about repeating trends of campaigning and coverage from 2016.  But some big wins on Election Day will be the first step to moving into a new era for America.  Deep breath, everyone, deep breath…

 

 

*Whoa, openly racist?  That’s a bit strong, isn’t it?  Well, we had an editorial meeting at Mr West Goes To Washington HQ to decide whether this was an appropriate term to be using about the President on the basis of his words and actions.  As a reminder, he supported conspiracy theories that Barack Obama wasn’t born in America, said Obama founded ISIS (playing up to conspiracy theories he was a dangerous Muslim because of, well, his name sounds different), referred to Haiti and African nations as “shithole countries” (adding “why can’t we have more people coming from places like Norway?”), said that the Charlottesville clashes between white supremacists and anti-racism protests had fine people on both sides (drawing strong praise from the KKK), branded Mexican immigrants as rapists, mocked Senator Elizabeth Warren’s distant native American heritage by calling her Pocahontas, has called numerous black politicians and media figures “low IQ” and has advocated for a ban on Muslims entering the US.

And in case you think this is all just something he has to do to shore up the loyal racist vote, long before he entered politics he had a long history of racist actions as a property owner in New York. So yeah, feel pretty good about calling Trump openly racist…